Expected AI Model Releases

Qwen is next up, with a release expected around Monday, Sep 14, 2026. Its last release was Qwen3.8-Max-0902 on Sep 2 2026, and it has historically shipped roughly every 12 days. Mistral, Moonshot AI, SpaceXAI are already past the date their cadence projected, so a release from any of them could land first.

Each date is the median gap between a lab's last five releases, added to its most recent release date. The median is used rather than the mean because release gaps are heavily right-skewed — labs ship several models within days, then go quiet for months — and a backtest over the full release history showed the median predicts the next gap around 10% more accurately. Models released on the same day are counted as one release. Every projection lands between Monday and Thursday: fewer than 2% of tracked releases have shipped on a Saturday or Sunday, and Friday is the quietest working day by a wide margin, carrying half the releases an even split across the week would give it.

The row stays on the list, but drops to a "past due" group at the foot of it, with the missed date struck through and the number of days it is overdue beside it. It sits below the labs still ahead of their dates because a lab months late is not the answer to "who ships next", which is what the top of the list is for. The row then adds a date that has not passed: the soonest instance of the weekday that lab has shipped on most often across its release history, today included, and always a Monday to Thursday. That weekday preference is too weak to sharpen a projection and is not used as one — it is a way to name the soonest day the lab plausibly ships, once the projected date has stopped being a date to expect.

Some are. Where a lab has publicly stated a release date — in its own post, on an executive's own account, or in a livestream — that date is used instead of the projection. Right now that applies to SpaceXAI. Leaks and third-party estimates are never used.

They indicate which lab is due, not when a specific model will launch. A lab can ship weeks early or go months past its typical gap, and the list shows overdue labs rather than hiding them. Use the projection to know where to look; use Instant Alerts to know the moment something actually ships.

Yes. Instant Alerts sends an email the moment a new model is added to the tracker, across every major lab, for $4 a month. The free digest covers the same releases up to two weeks later.