Expected AI Model Releases
When every tracked lab is next due to ship, earliest date first — so any lab already past its projected date sits at the top. Each date is either one the lab has stated publicly, or a projection from that lab's own release history: the median gap between its last five releases, measured from the most recent one.
How these dates are worked out
A lab's release gaps are heavily right-skewed — it ships a burst of models within days, then goes quiet for months. So the projection uses the median of the last five gaps rather than the mean: backtested across the full release history, the median predicts the next gap about 10% more accurately, and considerably better than that for bursty labs.
That median is added to the lab's most recent release date. Models shipped on the same day count as one release, so a lab that launches three sizes at once isn't credited with a three-day cadence.
Where a lab has publicly stated a date — its own post, an executive's own account, a livestream — that date is used instead of the projection. Leaks and third-party estimates are not used. A stated date that passes without a release stays on the list and shows as overdue, because a missed date is information too.
These are projections, not announcements. Treat them as a guide to which lab is due, not as a schedule.
Frequently asked questions
- Which AI lab is expected to release a model next?
- Anthropic is next up, with a release expected around Aug 17, 2026. Its last release was Claude Opus 5 on Jul 24 2026, and it has historically shipped roughly every 24 days. Mistral, Cursor are already past the date their cadence projected, so a release from any of them could land first.
- How are the expected release dates calculated?
- Each date is the median gap between a lab's last five releases, added to its most recent release date. The median is used rather than the mean because release gaps are heavily right-skewed — labs ship several models within days, then go quiet for months — and a backtest over the full release history showed the median predicts the next gap around 10% more accurately. Models released on the same day are counted as one release.
- Are any of these dates official?
- Some are. Where a lab has publicly stated a release date — in its own post, on an executive's own account, or in a livestream — that date is used instead of the projection. Right now that applies to SpaceXAI. Leaks and third-party estimates are never used.
- How accurate are the projections?
- They indicate which lab is due, not when a specific model will launch. A lab can ship weeks early or go months past its typical gap, and the list shows overdue labs rather than hiding them. Use the projection to know where to look; use Instant Alerts to know the moment something actually ships.
- Can I be notified when a new model is released?
- Yes. Instant Alerts sends an email the moment a new model is added to the tracker, across every major lab, for $4 a month. The free digest covers the same releases up to two weeks later.